In this week’s edition of Coin Toss, Justin Guerriero and Kyle Rini debate how likely it is that the Buffs will go undefeated in October.
Justin Guerriero: The only real question here is in regards to the Buffs’ matchup against the Stanford Cardinals on Oct. 22. I’m inclined to believe that Colorado’s three preceding October games against Oregon State, USC and Arizona State are more than winnable contests.
Colorado opens as a 17.5 favorite against OSU. The Buffs barely dammed the Beavers in Corvallis last year, sliding away with a 17-13 victory. But that was a different and a less experienced team. CU should manhandle Oregon State this Saturday. Colorado’s receiving core has been exceptional this year. In more than one instance, they made Michigan and Oregon’s secondaries look like a bunch of freshmen walk-ons.
Colorado’s offense and defense have both been solid this year. OSU does boast a solid tailback in Ryan Nall, but with how good the Buffs’ front seven have looked, I think Nall is a threat that will be contained.
This team is hyped up. They just took down the Oregon Ducks. I think players and coaches alike understand the importance of having a good follow-up game. Beating up on the Beavers would give this team a confidence level not seen from a Buffs squad in a long time. They cannot and will not lose this game.
The USC Trojans don’t instill as much fear as they used to. Southern California currently sits at 1-3. Underestimating the Trojans would be a mistake, as all coaches and players would surely agree, but still, I think Colorado has the edge here. USC will likely look at the matchup vs. the Buffs as a very important game. Regardless if the Trojans are 2-3 or 1-4 by the time of next week’s matchup, it’ll be a turning point in their season. Colorado could have the power to really put a dent in their bowl hopes with a road win.
Keep in mind that the Buffs could very well face a USC team led by an interim head coach. If the Trojans lose another game, head coach Clay Helton could be in the hot seat facing a removal. Colorado has proved that they can function effectively on the road. Considering the possibility of a 4-1 Buffaloes team marching into Los Angeles to face a struggling USC team, I like CU’s chances. This game is more than winnable.
Arizona State will be a tough game for the Buffs. It’s at Folsom Field, which is an advantage. The Sun Devils play USC and UCLA before heading to Boulder to take on the Buffs. We’ll see if they are still undefeated by that time. Head coach Todd Graham has an impressive offense. He’s been known for the spread offensive attack during his time as a head coach but standing in the way of his hopes and dreams is the Colorado secondary, which consists entirely of upperclassmen who have played together for years and have formed a solid camaraderie.
Arizona State’s defense has given up an average of 499 yards per game (404 through the air) this season. If the Buffs can put up 593 yards at Oregon, they’ll put up a similar amount against ASU. I imagine the Buffs’ receivers will spread the Sun Devils’ defense out, and if that happens, it’s going to be a long day for Graham and his Devils. Out of 128 FBS teams, ASU earned the No. 122 overall spot in the total defense department. This game will be a battle between the offensively/defensively balanced Buffs and the extremely lopsided Sun Devils. I think that CU will hold relatively well against ASU’s offense. Colorado’s offense should do some serious damage against the Sun Devils’ defense though, which is why I see this game ending in the Buffs’ favor.
But Kyle, there is one more matchup in October. It’s a showdown in Stanford, Calif. on Oct. 22 to face The Cardinals. I’ll leave that to you. What are you expecting?
Kyle Rini: I’ll be generous here, I agree with you that every single one of these October games is more than winnable for the Buffs, well… almost. The Buffs might just make it through Oct. 21 undefeated, but not any further than that.
In the final matchup of October, they face Stanford and all-star running back Christian McCaffrey. Out of all the games this season, this is the only one I can confidently say I don’t see the Buffs having a chance to win. Stanford is the new hegemon in the Pac-12. While Colorado can compete with declining powerhouses like Oregon and USC, I’m not sure they can compete with Stanford.
McCaffrey is a force of nature. This Buffaloes defense struggles against strong running attacks. The loss of senior outside linebacker Derek McCartney doesn’t help the situation. McCaffrey is also a threat on kickoff and punt returns, so I can easily imagine him having a day similar to the one Jabrill Peppers of Michigan did against CU. Second running back Bryce Love has also been impressive in the run game. Quarterback Ryan Burns has proven he can make crucial throws under pressure. This Colorado defense is great, but Peppers and McCaffrey are stars because they refuse to be contained by even the best defenders.
The Cardinals have also built a strong defense, anchored by a great D-line. They will make things hard for both junior tailback Phillip Lindsay and senior quarterback Sefo Liufau. Defensive end Solomon Thomas shined last year as a freshman and is tearing offenses up as a sophomore. If the Buffs continue to rely on predictable run plays instead of drawing up more creatives schemes, Thomas could be in the backfield all day. I have faith that Liufau will be able to get a good pass game going in this contest, but I don’t think it will be enough to overcome The Cardinals.
Special teams are always a question too. I’ve already mentioned McCaffrey’s potential on returns. Colorado could also suffer from the kinds of mistakes we saw against Michigan: blocked punts and poor coverage. Junior kicker Chris Graham hasn’t missed a field goal yet, but he did miss an extra point. With Diego Gonzalez out for the year, close games are very unsure. A missed field goal from Graham could make all the difference if things are close in the fourth quarter.
And all this is only if the Buffs can make it that far. Losing to declining, but still talented, USC at the coliseum would not be a surprise to me. Falling to Arizona State at home is also more than possible. Colorado will have to play mistake-free football to win-out in October. But for me, it’s definitely Stanford that stands in the way of this being a realistic opportunity.
Contact CU Independent Head Sports Editor Justin Guerriero at justin.guerriero@colorado.edu and follow him on Twitter @TheHungry_Hippo.
Contact CU Independent Sports Writer Kyle Rini at kyle.rini@colorado.edu.
