Quarterback Sefo Liufau (13) consoles his wide receiver Bryce Bobo after falling to UCLA in double OT. (Nigel Amstock/CU Independent File)
Will the Buffaloes make a bowl game? It’s the question that’s been asked every year since 2007 when Colorado played Alabama in the Independence Bowl. With 13 games on the schedule this year and no bye weeks, the Buffs will have to go at least 7-6. Will CU play in a postseason game for the first time in eight years? Sports editor Jared Funk-Breay and football beat writer Sean Kelly break it down.
Jared Funk-Breay: There’s a lot to be hopeful about this season. Much of the offense is returning, and it looked unstoppable in games against California and UCLA last year. The defense has players returning from injury, including defensive backs Jered Bell and Tedric Thompson, and Jim Leavitt looks to be about as good of a defensive coordinator as you can get in the college ranks.
The Buffs might surprise some people who haven’t been following them closely and improve this season, but it would be a shock if they made the postseason. It would be quite the turnaround for CU to go from 2-10 last year to 7-6 this year. It’s not impossible, but the best predictor for the future is the past, and I just don’t see it happening.
The schedule looks favorable for the Buffs in the first four games (at Hawaii, vs Massachusetts, vs Colorado State, vs Nicholls) and if there’s any hope of getting to seven wins, it’s likely they would have to sweep their non-conference schedule.
Conference play is where things get sticky. The Pac-12 is as competitive as any conference in the country, and logically you would expect wins to come at Folsom for the Buffs — but that looks daunting to say the least. Oregon, Arizona, Stanford and USC come into Boulder this year, and I don’t see CU coming away with a win against any of them. That leaves Arizona State, Oregon State, UCLA, Washington State and Utah on the road. If Colorado can’t win at home, it’ll have to win three Pac-12 road games, and I feel like that’s just asking too much.
CU has to overcome a lot of doubters if they’re going to the postseason. They were picked dead last in the preseason media poll. Don’t call me a doubter, but a five-win improvement in one year just seems like too much for me. I’m skeptically optimistic, but I see the Buffs coming up just short, winning five or six games this year.
Sean Kelly: Jared, you’re a doubter. You were doing so well in that first paragraph before you let doubts drag you down. You have to set yourself free. You have buy into the culture that Mike MacIntyre has created, a culture that’s dictated by one thing: belief.
You are right about one thing; the best predictor for the future is the past. Now there’s two ways to look at the Buff’s past. On the surface you see a team that went 2-10 last year, but a closer look at the details that led to many of those 10 losses reveals the Buffs were vastly better than they appeared on paper. It reveals that Colorado was finally ready to legitimately compete for the first time since joining the Pac-12.
It lost two games in double overtime — one against a quality UCLA team — that were both there for the taking barring three missed field goals, a poorly timed interception, a 93-yard touchdown run, and a blown goal-line opportunity at the end of the first half. A horrific call that I still don’t understand led to the loss against Oregon State, and a late pick six by Sefo Liufau was the only thing that stopped the Buffs from taking down a ranked Utah team.
At some point, all those close losses takes a toll on a team. The team’s demeanor in post-game press conferences defined the season. They would answer questions with hoarse voices and hollow thousand-yard stares. Seniors were left fighting back visible tears. After having their hearts broken week after week, the kids were flat-out defeated.
In my opinion, Colorado lost so many close games last year because they were a team so downtrodden they no longer believed they could win.
This year is different. The mentality of this team has completely transformed. Last year, Colorado proved it could be expected to compete, but this year it expects to win. Talk out of camp is the hiring of Jim Leavitt has brought new energy to the defense, and MacIntyre has said the team is now telling him they are going to a bowl game, and not the other way around.
I know this is not very concrete analysis. I haven’t addressed their schedule or the fact that they need to manufacture a miracle seventh win late in their Pac-12 schedule, but I think the fact that this team is all in on what their coach and teammates are preaching is far more important than any stat I can throw out. This team is coming into the season with one goal — bowl game or bust — and they truly believe they are going to do it.
In sports, some things transcend anything written down on paper. Jim Valvano won possibly the most improbable championship in NCAA history because he instilled in his team a belief that they were going to win. Above Colorado’s practice, MacIntyre has started flying flags with the logos of the bowl games the Pac-12 has ties to, a gesture reminiscent of Valvano making his team practice cutting the nets down. How can you say this team isn’t going to make a bowl game knowing they practice everyday with those flags flying above their heads?
Jared Funk-Breay: I guess I am a doubter then. But I feel like it’s my job to tell it how it is (or at least how I think it is), rather than create a story that best fits an interesting narrative for the Buffs.
That being said, I think fans should totally be as optimistic as you are being. Otherwise, what’s the point of even being a fan?
To deconstruct a bit of what you said, obviously there were a handful of games CU could have and maybe even should have won last season. But you have to ask, did Colorado lose those games because it was unlucky, or rather because the team was just inherently not good enough? No matter how you look at it, I don’t think you can safely assume the Buffs should have won every single one of their close games. Maybe they got a bit unlucky, but there is a reason they lost.
This year, Colorado is almost certainly going to be in a handful of close games again, just because that’s how football works. Like pretty much every other team, the results in nail-biters will ultimately decide CU’s fate. Word from practice says that coach MacIntyre has been drilling the team to be better in crunch time. Fans have to hope general improvement and drills like this will be good enough to get to that seven-win mark.
Honestly, looking at the schedule, the problem might be that the Buffs won’t even be in enough close games to have a chance. If there’s any hope for a bowl, CU will have to capitalize on most, if not all, chances to come out victorious. I’d love to hear which seven teams you think the Buffs will beat, because I’m just not seeing it.
Sean Kelly: Let’s get into some specifics then. First of all, Colorado has improved all over the field and on the sidelines. When I look at last season, two things stand out that needed to be addressed this offseason: Liufau’s interceptions and the run defense.
While you can’t blame Liufau’s turnovers for all the games the Buffs lost last season, there’s no doubt the interceptions played a huge role in many of those losses. He threw 15 interceptions, 14 of which came on Colorado’s side of the field, resulting in great field position for its opponents. According to Ralphie Report, those interceptions resulted in 69 points on ensuing possessions.
MacIntyre recognized how costly those turnovers were, and as a result Liufau has been working on drills designed to mitigate his interceptions.
On defense, the Buffs flat-out just could not stop the run last year. Their run defense was dead last in the Pac-12, giving up a staggering 204.8 yards per game. You can’t win in this conference giving up that much on the ground every game.
This year, the defense has a new leader in Leavitt. All word coming out of camp suggests that the defense Colorado trots out this year will be nothing like the defense that got bulldozed game after game last season. When you allow teams to run the ball like the Buffs did last year, it allows the other team to dominate possession and therefore the game. If Colorado can stop the run this year, they can take control of games themselves.
There are so many other things I can point to — like Leavitt drilling his defense to force turnovers — that I think will help the Buffs make a bowl game, but I don’t have room to talk about them. Let’s turn to what games I think they are going to win.
They should be 4-0 going into conference play, so that leaves the Buffs looking for three wins. Oregon State and Washington State are games I have circled that Colorado should win. Colorado should have beat Oregon State last year, so with an improved team that should be a win this year. Washington State is not a strong team and Colorado matches up well with them. That should be six wins. As for the seventh, I look at the game at home against Stanford as one where the team is going to be jacked up to get the program’s biggest win in years in front of its home crowd as a possible win. I also think the Buffs are going to surprise someone this year, the way they almost did in games against UCLA and Utah last year.
I think MacIntyre has this team so hungry they will not be denied. I think they will find a way to manufacture that seventh win. In a season marking the 25-year anniversary of Colorado’s lone national championship, the Buffs will finally break through to start a new tradition with their first bowl game since 2007.
Contact CU Independent sports editor Jared Funk-Breay and staff writer Sean Kelly at jared.funkbreay@colorado.edu and sean.d.kelly@colorado.edu.
