CU researchers examine trends in Arctic Sea ice
A quick look at a recent slide show presentation might be deceiving: the work of James Maslanik and company isn’t as simplistic as it might appear.
But Maslanik, an associate research professor from CU’s Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research, is able to summarize his research in deceivingly basic terms.
“Artic Ocean ice is at a tipping point and what happens in the next five to six years determines whether the Arctic Ocean will be mostly ice-free in the summer,” he said.
Maslanik, along with a team of researchers, including Research Assistant Sheldon Drobot, Research Associate Charles Fowler and Professor William Emery are documenting the rapid decline of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean region.
The amount of ice in the Arctic Ocean reached an unprecedented low in the summer of 2007, and according to research statistics, the readings from September 2007 show the ice to be 23 percent lower than the previous minimum from 2005.
Maslanik said his research indicates that rapid melting has been fostered by clear skies.
The research stresses that the old ice, which has melted and the new ice that has taken its place are fundamentally different. As ice ages, its thickness, surface topography, strength, and albedo (amount of light reflectivity) change dramatically. As older and thicker ice melts, it gives way to newer, thinner ice.
These conditions make the region more susceptible to rapid change and a snowball affect ensues: the more ice that is lost, the more rapidly it continues to dissipate.
The team detects the formation, movement and disappearance of sea ice using satellite data and drifting buoys fitted with an extensive array of instruments.
The Geoscience Laser Altimeter System, in conjunction with an elevation satellite, provides the data used to compile the ice thickness charts. From here, the researchers rely on the passage of time to discover trends, correlations, and make predictions.
As exhibited by a throng of colorful satellite photos and line graphs, the ice fluctuations vary in different parts of the Arctic region. Maslanik’s research shows the greatest ice loss has occurred in the western and Siberian Arctic.
Regions such as the east Beaufort Sea indicate a slight increase in ice thickness. However, this increase has not compensated for the drastic loss in other regions.
Maslanik noted the changes in shipping that accompany the change in ice formation, saying that access to the Arctic region is dictated by the predominance of ice. As a result, the summer of 2007 saw the opening of the Northwest Passage, a shortcut for shipping.
“This is a pretty big deal,” said Drobot, who specializes in forecasting.
Drobot says this new shipping opportunity is one potential positive business aspect of this climate change.
The studies also provide a more humane insight into the condition and its consequences.
“What happens up there affect us,” said Kathy Chmiel, a junior ecology and evolutionary biology major. “It’s a whole chain reaction of events. Studying things like that is very important.”
The ice changes the safety and success of hunting, which serves as a major food source for Arctic residents, as well as a basis for social organization.
Animal species in the region are also suffering from the conditions. Seals and walruses use sea ice as breeding and pupping grounds. As a result, seal populations in crowded areas are decreasing. Polar bear populations, which rely on hunting seals as a food source and ice as a medium for doing so, also suffer.
Maslanik said he sees his research as a way of informing the public and policy makers of the growing problem, conceding that they are the true vehicle of change on the matter. He says his research allows for opportunity to study future effects of Arctic ice melting.
“Why are we where we are now?” he asked. “Where will we get in the next twenty years?”
The data exhibited by the study relies on changes observed over time. Like the data, time should answer his questions.
Contact Campus Press Staff Writer Spencer Everett at spencer.everett@colorado.edu.
