Colorado football heads to Tucson this week for a matchup with the Wildcats of Arizona. With another win and another jump in the polls, the No. 16 Buffs (AP) will look to continue what has been a dream 2016 season. In their way is a Wildcats team that is injured, under-performing, but still hungry for their first Pac-12 win. So how will things shake out in the desert showdown? Here’s what to look for on Saturday.
Offense
Colorado’s offense as of late seems to be in transition. For the first half of the season, the offensive emphasis was on deep passes and frequent targets to the Buffaloes’ talented receivers. Even with senior quarterback Sefo Liufau out for three games with a sprained ankle, the Buffs continued to rely on the air attack. Since Liufau’s return however, it’s been junior tailback Phillip Lindsay and the run game that have been carrying the load.
The offensive line has adjusted to free up holes for Lindsay but has simultaneously freed up lanes for pass rushers to pressure Liufau. With little time to make plays, Liufau’s performance has dipped considerably. Against UCLA last week, he managed only 143 yards and was intercepted twice in the first quarter. It’s okay for the Buffs to play the run, but if they don’t shore up protection, offensive efficiency will continue to stagnate. Struggles to capitalize in the redzone are definitely not helping this team either.
Fortunately for the Buffs, Arizona’s defense is not one likely to take full advantage of offensive problems. Ranked ninth in the Pac-12, the Wildcats defense has surrendered at least 34 points in all of its conference games. That includes last week’s startling 69-7 beat-down courtesy of No. 25 Washington State. The Wildcats have not won since week three of the 2016 season.
Injuries to the Wildcats’ two best linebackers in Michael Barton and DeAndre’ Miller are sure to hurt this team and particularly its pass rush. Arizona opted for a three-man rush against WSU and it gave Luke Falk ample time to wait for open receivers. Expect the Wildcats to rush four hoping to avoid the same mistake even if it means risking completions to routes over the middle. Arizona’s secondary is experienced, but they shouldn’t present a big of challenge for the Buffs’ star receivers.
The Wildcats are a little bit better at containing the run, but really not by much. Surrendering an average 202.8 running yards per game (five yards per attempt,) the unit struggles to wrap up powerful runners. That’s good news for Lindsay and sophomore tailback Kyle Evans, both of whom prefer to charge up the middle. If the passing game somehow stalls, expect the Buffs’ running backs to push through for first downs.
Defense
Here’s where things really, really don’t look good for Arizona.
Colorado will head into this matchup with the nation’s ninth-best total defense (number one in the Pac-12.) It’s a unit that has led this team in close games and has caused turnovers seemingly at will. With star defensive backs in seniors Chidobe Awuzie and Ahkello Witherspoon, the Buffs’ secondary is a treacherous sight for enemy quarterbacks.
Arizona has been plagued with injuries under center, utilizing their fourth string option at one point. Things are looking better though, as quarterbacks Anu Solomon and Brandon Dawkins are both healthy for Saturday’s game. It remains to be seen which player will get the start, but neither has impressed mightily in their short tenures. Anything less than an elite quarterback is no doubt susceptible to interceptions and pressure from a much-improved Colorado pass rush.
No place are the Wildcats’ injury woes more apparent though than in the run game. With Nick Wilson, Tyrell Johnson and J.J Taylor all sidelined, Arizona has had to get creative. Receiver Samajie Grant has been called upon to pick up rushing duties and his lack of experience at the position is apparent. Grant eked out 64 and 77 yard performances against Stanford and Washington State, respectively
This game is an especially tall order for a guy that had no intention of taking handoffs just weeks ago. The front seven for the Buffs has stepped up and proved it can contain even the best rushers the Pac-12 has to offer. CU’s experienced linemen and linebackers should have no problem shutting down what is essentially football’s equivalent to a designated survivor.
There really is nothing here that points to an advantage for UA and its battered offense. That being said, events this week have taught us not to trust contests that seem like a shoo-in for one side. Expect the Buffs to win this one, but keep the phrase ‘trap game’ cautiously in mind.
The game will kickoff Saturday at 8 p.m. MST.
Contact CU Independent sports staff writer Kyle Rini at kyle.rini@colorado.edu
