Dustin Thomas celebrates a Buffs victory over Arkansas State during the 2013-2014 season. (Gray Bender/CU Independent)
This is the final installment of CUIndependent.com’s 2014-15 men’s basketball preview blowout. So far, Tommy Wood has profiled Colorado’s guards and coaching staff. Alissa Noe previewed the Buffs’ forwards and the opener against Drexel. Sam Routhier previewed the women’s guards, forwards and coaches.
Before you read this, look at Colorado’s non-conference schedule from 2010-11. The Buffs played programs like Alcorn State, Longwood and Texas Pan-American, and that weakness early in the season contributed more than anything to Colorado’s controversial snubbing from the NCAA Tournament; if you or I haven’t heard of a team, the selection committee likely hasn’t, either.
This is relevant because the Buffs’ non-conference schedule this season is comparatively weak. Colorado could blast through it, yes, but any loss outside of the Pac-12 will be quite damaging to the Buffs’ postseason hopes. Colorado earned at-large berths to the dance in 2012 and 2013 partly because of how difficult its out-of-league schedules were. Remember, too, that the Buffs were not considered a tournament team in 2011 before they won the Pac-12 and secured the conference’s automatic bid — that team played a soft non-conference schedule, as well.
After the opening home stand this year, Colorado’s first road test comes at Wyoming. It will be a test indeed, despite the Cowboys’ modest 18-15 record in 2013 — the Buffs’ last trip to Laramie, in 2012, ended with a 10-point Wyoming victory.
The Cowboys will be one of Colorado’s tougher non-conference opponents in 2014; there is no Kansas or Oklahoma State this year. In fact, the Buffs might not play a ranked team outside of the Pac-12 this season. They wrap up non-conference play in the Diamond Head Classic tournament in Honolulu — depending on how the bracket fills out, Colorado could play Wichita State in the finals.
If the Buffs do take on the Shockers, their non-conference RPI will actually be stronger than it was in 2013. Colorado head coach Tad Boyle made that clear at preseason media day. That is a massive conditional, though, and it is all the more imperative for the Buffs to roll through non-conference play undefeated. Colorado could realistically do so — the only major-conference opponents on its slate are Auburn and Georgia, middle-tier teams in the feeble SEC.
The Buffs must take advantage of that light early schedule. The selection committee won’t respect victories over Lipscomb and Northern Colorado. The Buffs made the dance with 23 wins last year largely because their non-conference schedule was so tough. Twenty-three likely won’t be enough this year.
“I want to win 25 games,” senior guard Askia Booker said. “Another NCAA Tournament, possibly a Pac-12 championship.”
Twenty-five wins would be a school record.
The Buffs open their conference schedule by hosting both Los Angeles teams, then embark on a hellish road trip. They play No. 25 Utah in Salt Lake City — the Utes have the best wing duo in the Pac-12 in Jordan Loveridge and Delon Wright — and take on No. 2 Arizona eight days later. The Wildcats are the best team in the country right now, and freshman guard Stanley Johnson might be the nation’s best player. Johnson is big, athletic, skilled and polished. No opposing player this season will be more difficult for Colorado’s wings to guard.
Arizona destroyed the Buffs with its aggressive trapping defense in each of their three meetings last season. Pitt did the same in the NCAA Tournament. Colorado retooled its offense this offseason to counter that — the Buffs will use their bigs to facilitate from the elbows and will run much more. I detailed their post-centric approach more here; in short, it is difficult to double-team big guys at the elbow because the help must either come from the corner or under the basket.
That approach may seem at odds with simultaneously pushing the pace, but Colorado’s offense is historically best under Boyle when the Buffs run. And this year, they have the personnel to play a transition-based game that works through the bigs in the half-court. Colorado’s depth certainly makes it easier to run.
“When we’re out there, give it our all,” junior forward Xavier Johnson said. “And then be ready to come out for a little bit and get ready go back into the game.”
Colorado will run in any situation this season, even after made baskets. The Buffs also have less defined roles on the fast break — “first come, first serve,” Johnson called it.
“If I get a rebound, I’m bringing it up,” he said. “Once I bring it up, everybody just fills in. If the big guys run to the corners first, the big guys run to the corners first. Everybody fills in from there.”
Boyle is quick to reiterate that Colorado doesn’t want to simply shoot within the first 10 seconds of the shot clock; the Buffs want the first good shot, not the first available shot. Transition is a vehicle for easier rim attacks and kicks to the corner.
This reworked offense will look something like what the NBA’s Washington Wizards run; they push the pace behind John Wall’s frenetic drives and crisp passes, but in the half-court they rely more on bigs Nene and Marcin Gortat to facilitate from the elbows. This isn’t to suggest that the Buffs will turn into an offensive juggernaut in 2014, but they will be far from the discombobulated, lethargic unit that took the court the second half of last season.
Colorado will need whatever extra firepower it can muster. It should sail through non-conference play, but the selection committee will want to see quality wins in the Pac-12. That means Utah. That means Arizona. That means killing last year’s stagnant offense and resurrecting it as a cutting, slashing, elbow-pick-and-rolling phoenix. That means pushing the game to a pace this team hasn’t yet played at, and seeing if the Pac can run with these Buffaloes.
Contact CU Independent Staff Writer Tommy Wood at Thomas.C.Wood@colorado.edu.
