Contact CU Independent Head Sports Editor Sam Routhier at samuel.routhier@colorado.edu and follow him on Twitter @samrouthier
Contact CU Independent Assistant Sport Editor Justin Guerriero at justin.guerriero@colorado.edu and follow him on twitter @TheHungry_Hippo
Some say the Colorado Buffaloes football program is improving, going as far as to suggest that a bowl game is right around the corner. Others point to a nearly ten year bowl game drought and a lack of any fresh winning seasons. Can the Buffs make a bowl game in 2016? The CUI’s Sam Routhier and Justin Guerriero have some thoughts on the issue.
Sam Routhier: It is borderline farcical that we once again return to this question that has been one of the key discussion points of each offseason for the University of Colorado football team since 2007. And yet, here we are, edging closer to the 10th anniversary of Colorado’s last bowl appearance (a 30-24 loss to Alabama in head coach Nick Saban’s first postseason appearance with the Crimson Tide). For eight consecutive seasons the answer to the question of whether the Buffaloes will once again participate in a bowl game has been a resounding no.
I take no pride in the following statement, but as I write this in the twilight of my four years as a Colorado Buffalo it is the only truth I know: I don’t believe that Colorado will play in a bowl game this upcoming season.
Now, I didn’t attend the Spring Game this past weekend, nor any of its practices. But junior quarterback Sefo Liufau is still on the mend from a broken foot and will be for some time. One of Colorado’s most prolific receivers in team history, Nelson Spruce, will be paid for the privilege of playing football next season at the professional level (or at least I think I know that). Transfer quarterback Davis Webb, the “Texas Cannon” who is supposed to save us, is currently a little too cozy with Gus Malzahn for my liking. Furthermore, I know that Colorado football players can’t seem to keep their names out of the headlines for all of the wrong reasons in the past calendar year.
When I look at this team, this roster, this story, it all looks and sounds like the same one I’ve heard the past couple of years. I already know how those stories ended, and I think I know how this one ends too.
Justin Guerriero: It’s definitely fair to reflect on the despair of the last decade of CU football. It’s not been pretty or fun to watch. But this year will be one to remember for our football program. I think that 2016 will be a culmination of the last decade; the Buffs will finally gain some traction in the Pac-12 Conference and earn a bowl bid.
One reason I’m excited for this upcoming season is depth within the Buffs’ roster. I don’t think head coach Mike MacIntyre has had a deeper squad in his tenure as head coach. Defensively, the Buffs lost lineman Justin Solis, cornerback Ken Crawley and safety Jered Bell. I wouldn’t call those losses crippling blows. There are people who are going to pick up the pieces.
The current linebacking core for the Buffs is one of the best the team had fielded in its decade of irrelevance. Having 2013 All-American linebacker Addison Gillam back this season (after missing nearly all of last year due to knee surgery) is step one. Gillam has the talent to lead a defense, but needs to stay healthy. Kenneth Olugbode is now a senior and his continued contributions will be key for the Buffs, as will Rick Gamboa’s. Gamboa, who replaced the injured Gillam as a freshman in 2015, ended up leading the team in tackles. Ryan Severson and Christian Shaver both saw snaps last season and will hopefully be capable of providing further depth and stability.
As for the defensive backs, I have faith that Isaiah Oliver, Afolabi Laguda, Ryan Moeller and Akhello Witherspoon will step up in place of the graduates Crawley and Bell. The Buffs still have a rock in Tedric Thompson, who will be a senior this fall and recorded the third-most tackles for the Buffs last year.
On the other side of the ball, the Buffs will be without lineman Stephane Nembot and wide receiver Nelson Spruce. There’s no denying that losing Spruce will hurt. He was the Buffs’ top receiver last year, catching 89 passes for 1,053 yards. He also was a favorite long range target of Liufau’s, as Spruce led the team with 46 catches for ten or more yards. But I think that guys like Devin Ross, Shay Fields, Bryce Bobo and Phillip Lindsay are going to pick up the slack.
So I think that despite the Buffs’ losses, there are more than capable people to pick up the pieces and turn this team into something respectable. It has been unfortunate seeing Nathaniel Blake Robbins and Samson Kofavolu’s names in the headlines for various issues with the law, but at this point, the train is moving. Mac and the players need to focus on the upcoming season. There’s no time to dwell on the mistakes of the few. I like to think that the majority of his players have good heads on their shoulders. But you are correct in hinting that there’s a pretty big question mark around the starting quarterback position. If Webb pulls out and opts to transfer to another school, the Buffs might be moving to DefCon 2 in order to find a capable starter.
SR: You mention a trait of this team that was often a silver-lining thought for me through last season’s struggles — it is by-and-large going to be an upperclassman bunch in 2016. Aside from the question mark that remains at the quarterback position, it is easy to look at this roster and form a depth chart in your head of veteran contributors on both sides of the ball.
But even with veteran experience and leadership as a feather in the cap of this team, I can’t help but look at the schedule before them and see trouble. Last year we spent a lot of time in the early weeks of the season considering the path to a bowl game for Colorado. Even with the difficult loss to Hawai’i in the first game of the 2015 season, there was hope through the end of the season that the Buffaloes could be bowl-bound.
If the Buffs had won either a close game at UCLA or an equally-tight contest two weeks later against USC in Boulder, they would have been playing for a bowl berth in Utah in the season’s final week. The fact that both of those games versus the LA teams were losses actually made the close loss to Utah a tad easier to stomach, although winning any of those three games admittedly would have felt like progress that is sorely needed for this team that is supposedly on the come-up.
A look at this year’s schedule reveals far fewer prospective paths to a bowl game. Whereas home games against Arizona and USC were conceivably winnable for Colorado, this season the Buffs host Arizona State and Washington State, teams that clobbered them last season. Furthermore, Colorado faces a huge obstacle in its non-conference schedule with a visit to powerhouse Michigan in week 3, pretty much the polar opposite of the team’s pre-conference tune-up against Nicholls last season. Whereas the Buffaloes rode a momentum-filled blowout over Nicholls into a showdown in Boulder against Oregon last season (a game the Buffs ultimately lost but kept close for two quarters), this year they’ll most likely be looking to bounce back from a sizeable defeat in Ann Arbor by facing steep odds on the road in Eugene against the Ducks in week 4.
Much like Opening Day in Baseball, the opening weekend in college football is a special time for fans of every team. No matter what evidence exists to suggest your team cannot win a National Championship, or a conference title, or a bowl game, every team is on equal footing. As was the case for my four years as a student at Colorado, I know coming into next fall I’ll look at this team and part of me will think “Why not this year, why not a bowl game?”
But then the other part of me will remember we are playing away games at Michigan, Oregon, Stanford, USC, and Arizona. And I will cease to hope.
JG:Yeah, the Buffs will likely be beaten soundly by Stanford this season. Playing USC on the road will be tough, too. But then I look at the Buffs’ matchups against California, Oregon and Oregon State.
The Buffs last played Cal in 2014, where they suffered a heartbreaking 59-56 double overtime loss to the Golden Bears. But California must replace starting quarterback Jared Goff as well as five of its top six statistical wideouts. In other words, I see an offense that isn’t as threatening as people think. Being in the cellar of the Pac-12 for so long has distorted people’s opinions on exactly how talented the Pac-12 is as a conference. Make no mistake, the Pac-12 features some elite teams, but I think it’s important to note that in many cases last season, the Buffs decided the outcomes of close games for themselves by blowing it. What I’m trying to say here is to be careful in how much you attribute Arizona’s 38-31 win over the Buffs last year or USC’s 27-24 victory; I think that the Buffs deserve more credit for losing than their opponents do for winning.
Oregon definitely falls into that bag of teams that instill fear into the hearts of Buffs fans. But remember, last year at Folsom Field, the Buffs were tied with the Ducks 17-17 at halftime before ultimately losing 41-24. This year, the Ducks also have to replace their starting quarterback. The biggest weakness for Oregon will be its defense. DeForest Buckner is gone, and the Ducks have just five returning starters. I know I might be connecting some nonexistent dots here because a large indicator of the Buffs’ success will be who is starting at quarterback, something that has yet to be determined, but I do think that the playing field is being leveled for the Buffs in the Pac-12.
That brings us to Oregon State. Last season, the Buffs barely squeaked by the Beavers for a 17-13 road win. The Beavers were winless in the Pac-12 last season, and I expect them to be bullied around again in 2016. I hope that means a likely win for the Buffs when the two teams meet in Boulder on October 1.
Sam, all I’m trying to say is that it’s plausible that the Buffs could get six wins this season and find themselves in a bowl this winter. Of course, there’s not a lot of wiggle room to blow games and not score points in key situations. However, if the Buffs can earn victories in some of the more favorable Pac-12 matchups that I’ve mentioned, dispatch CSU in week one and Idaho State in week two, that will be five wins for them. As for that final sixth win that would propel the Buffs into a potential bowl game, well, Sam, who do you think the Buffs will upset? Maybe Michigan…
