Opinions do not necessarily represent CUIndependent.com or any of its sponsors.
Let me make this very clear: I think Duke is a top-three basketball team in the country. Jahlil Okafor is the best big-man in college basketball right now, and will no doubt be a first-round draft pick for every NBA team not named the New York Knicks.
The Blue Devils’ victory over Gonzaga cemented head coach Mike Krzyzewski among the pantheon of the greatest coaches in collegiate history, and the supporting cast of Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones are among the best in the NCAA.
But whoever they face on April 6 will have already been crowned the national champions. Even if Duke defeats the most under-seeded team in the tournament, Michigan State, the game will be a consolation prize and a chance to unseat the real No. 1 team in college basketball.
Many will say that contention is ridiculous, but Wisconsin and Kentucky are currently the two best teams in the country and their final four game will most likely be the best game you will see in college basketball this year.
Here are three reasons why:
Numbers Never Lie
Out of all the teams left in the tournament, the Wildcats and Badgers are the two top-ranked teams according to the AP Poll. The same goes for the coveted KenPom rankings. Wedged between them at the respective 1 and 3 spots were Villanova in the AP and Arizona in KenPom. Both are out: one at the hand of Wisconsin, the other to NC State.
Diving deeper into KenPom, the game pits the statistically best offensive and defensive teams in the country. Wisconsin leads in adjusted offensive efficiency with 127.5 (which is a function of points scored per 100 possessions and adjusted for opponents) while Kentucky leads in defense with 85.6 (points allowed per 100 possessions adjusted). To put it in perspective, Notre Dame, who gave the Wildcats their toughest game, and probably the best game of this tournament so far, was ranked 2nd in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Historically, Wisconsin has the highest adjusted O rating since Ken Pomeroy created the stats system in 2002. Kentucky is tied for second lowest adjusted D rating in KenPom history, trailing the University of Memphis’ 2009 Championship team (85.1), another squad coached by current Wildcat skipper John Calipari.
Now take the hottest shooting team in the tournament touting the second best offensive player in the country, and put them against the most dominant defensive team in the country right now. The scales slightly tip in UK’s favor when looking at the categories where the teams don’t lead. Kentucky is 5th in adjusted offense while Wisconsin is 55th in adjusted D. This is where you could argue that Duke would be the better matchup for the top team in the country, as they are more evenly matched to play the Wildcats (being 3rd in adjusted O and 17th in adjusted D).
But if you take the strengths of each team, and pit them against each other, it’s like seeing Muhammad Ali match up with George Frazier: You are guaranteed to watch a show.
Personnel Matchups
Now this can be a very contested point. Just player-wise, I don’t think there’s a college basketball fan in the country that doesn’t want to watch Jahlil Okafor square up against Karl-Anthony Towns. It would be a matchup of the best offensive big man in the country against the best defensive big man in the country. But both Kentucky and Duke are not defined by a player that garners most of the media attention. Don’t forget, the Wildcats obliterated West Virginia on a night where Towns had one point.
What makes Kentucky-Wisconsin so good is that the personnel of both teams is probably the best matchup the tournament has to offer. No one is going to match the Wildcats front-court, which boasts two seven-footers, but the Badgers bring in the next-best offensive big man in college basketball, Frank “The Tank” Kaminsky and the hottest hand in the NCAA tournament, Sam Dekker.
Kaminsky and Dekker both will give Kentucky a tough time on the offensive end, having the ability to bang it down low in the paint or shoot from outside. This was particularly noticeable in Wisconsin’s Elite 8 game against Arizona, in which center Kaleb Tarczewski was pulled out of the paint multiple times by the Badger frontcourt, allowing the forwards to combine for 56 points. In addition to the 7′ Kaminsky and the 6’9″ Dekker, Wisconsin also boasts forward Nigel Hayes, who has been quiet this tournament but has the ability to break out in big games (he went for 25 points against Final Four team Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament Championship).
Kentucky has the benefit of having a team stacked with NBA talent and four players over 6’10” who all see solid minutes. While it is difficult to pick a star out of such a complete squad, Towns is the straw that stirs the drink. Notre Dame tried to not double him last week, and all the freshman did was go to work again and again on the block. The one time the Irish did double him, he found fellow freshman Tyler Ulis, who hit a big three to bring the Wildcats back into the game.
Not only will Wisconsin have to account for Towns and the other big men–Trey Lyles, Dakari Johnson and Willie Cauley-Stein–but Kentucky also has a talented backcourt that boasts Ulis, Devin Booker and the Harrison twins, who might be the best siblings in sports since Al Joyner and Jackie Joyner-Kersee. Not only that, they have absolute ice in their veins. Aaron hit the game winning shot against Wisconsin last year, while brother Andrew made two free-throws in the final seconds to defeat Notre Dame last week.
Getting Kaminsky and Dekker into foul trouble will be key, taking away the two biggest offensive options. Conversely, the Wildcats have to deal with Kamisky’s ability to stretch the floor and bring players like Towns out of the post, and will need to pray that the Badgers don’t get hot from beyond the arc the way they did against Arizona (Wisconsin hit 10 three-pointers in the second half of that game).
The Real Heavyweight Fight-
I’m of the train of thought that believes that personnel doesn’t get teams into the Final Four, it’s the coaches. Just look back at the last 10 years and the same names are always usually in the mix. Four gentlemen on that shortlist are traveling to Indianapolis this week.
Surprise, surprise.
This game pits the King of the Swing, Wisconsin’s Bo Ryan, against the Delegate of the Dribble-Drive, Kentucky’s John Calipari. In addition to having ideological differences about the game (The Badgers starting five are largely upperclassmen while the Wildcats rarely have veteran talent), they are two of the best minds in college basketball.
Ryan runs the swing offense, which is essentially a 4-out-1-in motion offense. Everyone on the floor is pretty interchangeable and the scheme is predicated on patience and discipline, something every player on the floor for Wisconsin seems to possess a great deal of. While most offenses, like Kentucky, favor dribble penetration to find good looks, the swing places a premium on good screens and solid passing.
Calipari, on the other hand, has utilized the dribble-drive motion offense for years, dating back to his days at UMass. The biggest key to this guard-heavy offense is dribble penetration which can be used to kick out to someone on the three point line or find a big man inside for a lay-up (or in Kentucky’s case, A LOT of alley-oops).
So with both running offenses that suit their teams perfectly, the most exciting part of this game will be how the coaches try to out-scheme one another in-game. Halftime adjustments often are how teams enter the final half of play and outshine their opponents, and with two of the best minds in the game going head to head, it should be a very similar game to the one we saw one year ago, which went down to the wire and saw Kentucky win.
The Wildcats are chasing history, and the Badgers are looking for revenge.
The best offense against the best defense.
Seniors against Freshmen.
No. 1 against No. 2 for the true national championship.
Are you not entertained?
Contact CU Independent Sports Editor Andrew Haubner at andrew.haubner@colorado.edu or on twitter @A_G_Haubner.
